It’s January 2020: a new year and a new decade. Which in the world of tech and innovation always means one thing: a raft of predictions based on what’s been shown at CES in Las Vegas. So today we’re sharing our thoughts for the year ahead, but with an important difference: rather than rounding up all of the shiniest new gadgets, we’re identifying trends / predictions that point towards more purposeful urban innovation that could result in real change for people.
2020: the year sustainability becomes mainstream
Sustainability becomes mainstream
News of the Australian bushfires has provided an alarming start to the new decade. It’s now seemingly impossible to avoid the real-life impacts of climate change and events Down Under will likely accelerate momentum towards increased commitments to climate change mitigation. Here in the UK there’s already been strong signs of a step change. We know that 65% of UK Councils have declared a Climate Emergency. At grass roots level, a recent poll for The Independent also showed “overwhelming support for radical change to end the UK’s net carbon emissions by the end of the decade”. 70% of those questioned said they supported the target of net-zero emissions by 2030, with only seven per cent opposing it.
And what does all this mean for urban innovation? Well, vague claims about reducing carbon emissions have probably had their day: people want and expect to see action. With a new majority Government in place we should expect to see some detail on the policies the Government will introduce, as well further signs that people from all walks of life will be choosing to make more sustainable lifestyle choices. Either way, for local authorities, planners and developers, sustainability considerations are likely to be more centre-stage than ever before.
More low emission zones and car bans
70% of the world’s energy is consumed in cities; with 70% of greenhouse gases generated in cities and 800M urban dwellers at risk from rising sea levels and storm surges. Cities therefore will be the first line of attack in the fight against climate change. There is a growing group of cities that will not wait for national policy, but instead, have already started to bring about change. Changing the way we move in cities, by reducing private car use and instead incentivising people to walk, cycle and use public transport, will be a key part of achieving that. We should expect to see more cities considering radical plans going beyond a simple congestion charge. Already this year Barcelona has kicked off the largest low-emissions zone in southern Europe, banning the most polluting vehicles from entering not only the city centre but the whole city and some satellite towns. Closer to home, Bristol and Oxford are voluntarily bringing forward private car restrictions, with Birmingham, Leeds, Nottingham, Derby and Southampton all mandated by the Government to bring forward Clean Air Zones. We expect to see other cities follow suit. Who will be in the next round of cities to announce? Watch this space!
More UK innovation funding
After a year of government changes and focus on Brexit, the new year brings the opportunity for the UK to invest heavily in its future. Research and Development programs will gain a new focus; exciting and pushing industry to innovate and create expertise in the UK to match, or even outdo, international competition. At DG Cities, we are expecting new investment to fund larger-scale trials and deployments of innovative and new technologies to help people in cities. We hope to see a move beyond “innovation zones” to scaled deployments, ensuring benefits reach everyday citizens in our urban areas.
More simulation than AV on-road progress
We saw in 2019 a slowdown of the hype around Connected and Autonomous Vehicles, as it dawned on the industry that level 5 vehicles are still a number of years away and it is time for step-by-step progress and rollout. In 2020 we expect a lot of focus to be placed on simulation and modelling, to try and validate autonomous driving behaviour on the road first in silicon. We are already participating in work that is taking place in this field, bringing innovative approaches to gather public input and gain behavioural insights.
First cyber attacks may change thinking
We know that all new technology has its inherent risks. As connected devices start to grow in size (connected vehicles), gain incredible mobility skills (drones) or control crucial life-saving processes (AI diagnostics), the impacts of any risks associated to them are increasing rapidly. We think that 2020 might be the year when targeted cyber attacks will allow the attackers to set back the confidence in some of the new technologies, exposing our own vulnerability in the meantime. It will be crucial to work together, get the public involved and spread best practices, as all systems are only as strong as their weakest links.
We would love to hear from you; what changes do you think we are going to see coming through in 2020?