It’s certainly been a year of turmoil and change.
Embracing working from home for some, transportation anxiety for others, and of course furlough (by 13th December approximately 9.9 million workers, from 1.2 million different businesses had been furloughed). Employment has also fallen, with HMRC reporting that from the start of the pandemic to December over 820,00 jobs had been lost from payrolls.
Image credit: Markus Spiske
For a city like London, reduced numbers commuting or switching to cycling or walking where possible, seemed like a potential benefit in relation to air quality at least. But when you scratch the surface, it is of course far more complex.
Initially, during the first lockdown, people were encouraged, through a very clear message, not to travel. To help essential workers London’s Congestion Charge was dropped altogether; in spite of the suspension of the Charge traffic in London fell to levels not seen for decades.
The Charge was reinstated in May, with cost and the periods it covered both substantially increased. Generally, this has seen a reduction in inner London congestion, however in outer London it’s a different story.
In September, with drivers avoiding the charges in Central London, schools returning and workers being ‘encouraged’ back to the office (and looking at alternatives to the perceived dangers of public transport), congestion in outer London ran to 153% of comparable 2019 levels.
Alongside this a huge drop off in the fares that effectively fund TfL’s transport system created a black hole of almost £2 billion for the final 6 months of this financial year. On 31st October the Mayor of London reached a second agreement with the Government on a funding deal to keep services running until March 2021.
So where does this leave us going forwards? With an effective vaccine surely some semblance of ‘normality’ may return later in 2021; or will it?
At DG Cities we see the pandemic accelerating trends and disruptions we were already predicting
● travel for business and ‘the commute’ dropping, perhaps permanently;
● movement from ownership to usership and with it the increasingly rapid adoption of travel on demand and Mobility as a Service; and
● increased digitisation demand and use - accelerating remote working and meeting, telehealth, online education, and home grocery shopping
The world will only look significantly different however if, as we emerge from this crisis, we, (from political leadership down to individual citizens), have the foresight to act positively to help resolve the problems caused by polarisation of access and bring about fundamental changes to address inclusion. A (rapidly removed) piece of graffiti in Hong Kong summarised it well: “We can’t return to normal, because the normal we had was precisely the problem”.
And in the meantime, the team at DG will continue to work to understand and positively influence these accelerated trends, ensuring they work for cities and their citizens.
To discuss how COVID-19 is impacting your city or how we can help you plan for future trends and disruptors, get in touch at [email protected].
